New Orleans at Indiana

The New Orleans Pelicans come into this matchup off a 124-121 overtime loss to the Hawks on Saturday. They sit third in the Southwest but are averaging 118.1 PPG which is tops in the Western Conference, and #2 in the league. Indiana was off since Friday's 101-99 win over the Heat as 3.5-point dogs and the Pacers have now covered four straight, getting points in all four. It might make this seem like an obvious spot to grab the home points, but all four of Indiana's covers came against teams with losing records. Those teams also score an average of just 109.9 PPG, and the Pacers' offensive output has declined in each matchup, from 127 vs. the Wizards to just 101 against Miami. Non-conference dogs off a close home win have a tough time getting up to speed, going just 48-89 ATS (35%) since 1996. New Orleans has done well the past five years as road chalk going 36-20 ATS (64%), and they scored 117.4 PPG. I'm seeing a 3-5 point value on this line. Lay the points with New Orleans.