New Orleans at San Antonio

Many are thinking, after New Orleans cleans San Antonio out at home and now getting a big juicy number on the road, that a Hornets bet looks rather tasty. Not to us. Remember that they beat Dallas at home by double digits both games, and by almost the identical total points. They fell in game three on the road by 10. This San Antonio team has been around for a while and they won't panic. In fact they will kick it up a notch at home. This is a team that is 28-15 ATS at home in the playoffs in the Duncan era. Many will look upon the Hornets record on the road, and feel they will win this one or stay within striking distance. They went 24-15-2 ATS on the road, but that doesn't tell the real story. In contrast, it creates a false sense of security for their backers. They were 18-3-2 ATS on the road vs teams allowing 100+ points a game, and 6-12 ATS on the road vs teams allowing under 100. The Hornets produced 100.9 ppg this season, but against teams that allowed under 100 on the road, they score just 91 ppg! San Antonio averaged just 95 ppg this season, but at home, vs teams that allow under 100, they were better, at 97 ppg! This will be another double-digit blowout, but this time, San Antonio will end up in the win column. We think a motivated Spurs team will come out with intense defensive pressure to start this game. They allowed opponents just 44.5 ppg in the first half at home this season, a big reason they were 37-7 here. New Orleans' offensive output drops on the road and they will struggle here. The Hornets are 20-10 UNDER in the first half this season following an OVER. They are also 21-9 UNDER in teh first half vs. teams at .600+ this season. We like the UNDER in the first half as well as the Spurs to cover.