New Orleans at Minnesota

The NBA has its ebbs and flows. After an opening night win by one basket against lowly New Jersey, the T-Wolves went on to lose fifteen straight games. However, they have won two of their last five games, covering the spread in all five. So, the value right now is on this Minnesota team, getting faded lines. New Orleans has gone the opposite way. After starting off poorly, the Hornets were not getting respect and they put together a streak of five straight ATS wins, going 4-1 straight up in the process. But over their last four games they are now 1-3 ATS as the pendulum has swung the other way. The Hornets are still 1-9 on the road this season, giving up over 108 points per game, yet they are favored to win this game. Minnesota has the better defense and that should allow them to hang tight or win the game here. This is not a good matchup for the Hornets, at least when we are looking at ATS performance. New Orleans is 9-25 ATS dating back to last season vs. teams that allow 46%+ shooting. They are also 4-19 ATS over that span vs. teams allowing 103+ points per game. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 14-3 ATS the past three seasons when facing a team at .400 to .490. I like the home dog here.