New Orleans at Minnesota

There is certainly more to play for here on the side of New Orleans and it comes with a huge price tag. The Hornets are posted as a 10-point pick at Minnesota. Certainly looks like a huge overlay to us. The T-Wolves began the year with a lot of former Celtics that came over in the Garnett trade and there were a lot of growing pains, big adjustments and roles being defined. They started the season taking their lumps, going just 5-34 over essentially the first half of the season. They had no chance against the good teams. They finished this stretch going just 2-10 ATS at home against the .500+ teams, and lost nine of them by double-digits! Their average margin in those games was -14.1 points per game - all at home. This team matured as the season went on and a 5-34 team has since been 14-24. What was unthinkable in the first half became a reality. Those same games against the .500+ teams resulted in more double-digit wins (3), than double digit losses (2). They transformed a 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS mark for a 4-7 SU and 8-3 ATS mark. This team was never more than a 10 point dog to any team at home even at 5-34. Now that they have been a much improved team, this is the highest line posted against them at home. This line is jacked up because the books know that New Orleans is playing for something, but Minnesota is as well. They took their biggest loss of the season to New Orleans by 34 points. New Orleans showed no mercy running it up even in the fourth quarter. Remember Seattle the other night against Denver after getting humiliated 168-116? They beat them outright as a double-digit dog. If you think Minnesota has been a no-show at home against these good teams, think again. They lost to Boston by two, San Antonio by one, Detroit by four. They beat Utah twice, beat Philadelphia and lost to Houston in the middle of their big streak by just six points. The public was all over Denver against Seattle a few nights ago, and drove the line up. Well this one opened at 9.5 and went to 10, now 10.5. For New Orleans, this is the perfect sandwich game. They lost to San Antonio at home last night, and will leave after this one for a showdown in LA on Friday, which will be three games in 4 nights. We don't expect them to expend a ton of energy in this one. We do expect to see Minnesota throw their "A" game at the Hornets - just like Seattle did to Denver and that means they stay within this number.