New Orleans at Miami

The Miami heat can win this game by 30 if they treated it like a playoffs game. But, with a long season they choose their spots, and this won't be one of them. The Heat invests a lot of energy in their bigger games, but often walk through games against opponents they know they can beat without a full effort. They have dropped their last five ATS as a favorite of -9.5 or more, and I see no reason for them to come out with fire here. The Hornets are 5-13 and not a good team, but teams like this usually play hard against the elite teams trying to get a reward. They have already covered against Memphis, San Antonio, and Chicago this season. All three of those games were played in the 90s or less. The Hornets have had great success in the NBA Southeast where they are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57, and their last 17 in Miami has seen the UNDER cash at a 12-4-1 clip. The Hornets are also successful in Miami where they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 trips here. Play this one on New Orleans and the UNDER.