New Orleans at Houston

Like a lot of NBA teams, the New Orleans Pelicans have discovered that losing a high-impact, elite player, changes things dramatically. New Orleans has not been a playoffs contender since the departure of Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Pelicans have suffered seven straight losses. That doesn't mean they have not been competitive as they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when taking +5.5 or more points. Houston has had the luxury of Harden on the outside, and Howard in the paint, and have the ingredients of a winning team. They have played down the stretch with a lot of injuries that have changed the lineup considerably, and the results have reflected that. Houston is just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games. New Orleans held their ground vs. the Rockets in the two meetings this season, losing by just 9 and 3 points. With Houston's injury issues, I don't expect the margins to reach the proportions the oddsmakers have put in place. The total has been jumped as well, and neither game managed to get to this season. New Orleans has avoided the track meet vs. good teams, as they are 20-7-1 to the UNDER in their last 28 vs. a team better than .500, and the UNDER has ruled the day in this series at 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings. The Rockets have failed to top the total in their last five vs. a losing team. Take the generous points on New Orleans, and play the UNDER in this one.