Minnesota at Denver

Denver is all about offense, tops in the NBA in points scored but a soft defense allowing 101.7 ppg, 29th in the NBA. They also allow .457% shooting by opponents, 24th in the league. The way to hang with them is to run and Minnesota can do that, with big Kevin Love a beast on the boards, seventh in the NBA in scoring and third in rebounding. The Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. And they are undervalued here, with the Timberwolves 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. While Minnesota is undervalued, Denver is overvalued at home, with the Nuggets 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Denver and the road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Play Minnesota.