This pick was released to clients on May 11, 2024 at 11:18AM ET.
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Milwaukee at Boston

May 11, 2022
img7:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Boston already has plenty of offensive weapons and now Al Horford is getting hot as he exploded for a career-playoff-high 30 points in Game 4 on Monday to lead the Celtics to a 116-108 win and tie the series at two games each. Jayson Tatum also scored 30 points and Milwaukee couldn't keep up with Boston's 50-percent shooting for the game. The Bucks shot just 41 percent and missed 18 of 27 from 3-point range and Giannis Antetokounmpo had 34 points, but didn't get enough help from his teammates. Now the Celtics go home where they are 31-14 on the season and the Bucks are 1-9-1 ATS the last 11 meetings overall and 1-5 ATS at Boston. However, Milwaukee has a decent road record of 27-18 straight up and won Game 1 before losing by 23 points in Game 2 in the games at Boston. Center Robert Williams could return for this game and help defend against Antetokounmpo. Also take the UNDER. In the playoffs, the Bucks have improved their defense, going from allowing 111 per game down to 99 - a massive 12-point swing. The problem for them is their offense has also swooned, dropping from an average of 115 down to 105. Not a suprise really, as when facing winning teams this season Milwaukee is 29-18 to the UNDER. That includes a ridiculous 8-1 UNDER mark in the postseason. Under Udoka, the Celtics are 30-14 UNDER when favored in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). Back the Celtics to win as a Max Play, and take this game to stay UNDER.

2 units on Boston -210 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 2.95)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 213.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Milwaukee Bucks img
28
19
30
33
110
Boston Celtics
26
28
32
21
107
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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