Milwaukee at Miami

Certainly two of the most improved teams in the NBA will be going at it in this one. The Bucks dropped 18 of their last 21 a year ago, while the Heat was the worst team in the league. While the Heat have won four of the last six, the losses were in the last two and decisive at that - losing by 14 and 16 points. The wins were not getting it done against the line as they are now just 1-6 ATS in their last seven, so this team has been playing below the line for quite awhile now. They have not relished the favorite’s role either where they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11. The Bucks, meanwhile, have been playing above the line all season as they have turned a nice profit on the road going 9-5 ATS including 5-3-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Bucks are a live dog here, and I'll back them with the points.