Milwaukee at Miami

The betting line says this is a mismatch and so does the matchup. Miami finished the season with wins in 37 of its final 39 games and ranks in the top five in both points scored and points allowed. They have better depth than a year ago, adding Ray Allen, and remember that they played half their playoff games in 2012 without center Chris Bosh, who battled an injury. Now they are healthy, confident and ready to roll. The Heat is 9-0 ATS against a team with a losing record and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on three or more days rest. Milwaukee is a very weak team. The Bucks are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record and dropped seven of nine down the stretch. The Bucks are 19-41 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning record and 6-20 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Miami just beat the Bucks by 11 points on this court two weeks ago allowing 83 points -- without Wade or Bosh. As for the pace of the game, this Milwaukee offense is weak on the road at 7-2 UNDER the total their last nine road game. Miami plays exceptional defense at seventh in the NBA in field goal shooting defense and fifth in points allowed. The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these team,  8-2 UNDER the total in Miami. Look for the Heat to dominate defensively early shutting down a shell-shocked and bad Bucks team. Two plays: Play the Bucks/Heat First Half UNDER the Total and the Heat in Game 1.