Milwaukee at Denver

Denver is a mess, losing six in a row and are on a 5-15-1 spread run. Denver made a big mistake in trading second-leading scorer Arron Afflalo, with the team averaging 87.8 points and shooting 36.1% while dropping six straight. Losers in 19 of 21, the Nuggets' 99-92 loss to New Orleans on Sunday left them within a game of the team-record 11-game home losing streak set in 1997-98. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has overachieved all year behind this defense and first-year coaching staff, at #3 in the NBA in points allowed and field goal shooting defense, allowing 43%. The Bucks are 38-17-1 ATS following a loss and 10-4 ATS playing on two days of rest. The Nuggets are just 16-40-2 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record, plus they're on a 5-15-1 ATS run at home. Lay the points on Milwaukee.