Milwaukee at Boston

Milwaukee got what it needed, and that was at least a split of the first two games of the series before going home for Games 3 and 4. Boston didn't have as much luck containing Giannis Antetokounmpo as it did Kevin Durant in the previous series. Antetokounmpo had 24 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists as the Bucks held the Celtics to 33.3% shooting. This is an absolute must-win for Boston, and I expect them to play that way. The good news for Boston is that the Bucks shot only 41.1% themselves, and if the Celtics keep that up, they will bounce back in a big way in Game 2 as they average 46.6% shooting and have sharpshooters Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who are expected to shoot much better after missing a combined 21 of 31 shots on Sunday. The previous eight of nine meetings went OVER, and the OVER is 16-6-1 in the last 23 meetings at Boston. The OVER is also 12-5 in the Celtics' last 17 games overall and 6-1 OVER when they're playing with one day of rest. Plus, the OVER is 16-7-1 when Boston is a favorite. The Celtics are 25-12-1 ATS as playoff favorites, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus teams with winning records. Milwaukee is 8-17 ATS as a road underdog, and over the last five seasons, NBA playoff underdogs coming off of a 10+ point upset win are just 62-180 straight-up in their next game. Boston is 13-4 this season when revenging a home loss and 8-2 after scoring 95 points or less. Take the Celtics on the moneyline for a Max Play, and also back the OVER.