This pick was released to clients on May 22, 2022 at 12:00PM ET.
img NBA

Miami at Boston

May 23, 2022
img8:40 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

The Zig-Zag Theory is in full force in this series and that is to bet on the team that lost the previous game. Boston made adjustments after losing the opener, came back in Game 2 and then the Heat, irate at blowing home-court advantage, stole Saturday's game on the road, 109-103. Now it's the Celtics' turn to bounce back after nearly erasing a 25-point first-half lead by Miami on Saturday night. Jayson Tatum figures to rebound from a bad performance as he scored just 10 points on 3-for-14 shooting, with six turnovers and no field goals in the second half. All three games in the series have gone OVER by an average of 24.5 points, and seven of the past 10 meetings have soared OVER. The OVER is 21-7 in Miami's past 28 conference final games and Boston is 11-4 OVER its last 15 games playing with one day of rest. The Celtics have covered five straight following a loss and they are 27-13-1 ATS their past 41 playoff games as favorites. Take the Celtics as a Max Play, and play this game to go OVER, risking 1-unit.

2 units on Boston -7 (-102) (risk 2 to return 3.96)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 206 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Miami Heat
11
22
19
30
82
Boston Celtics img
29
28
19
26
102
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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