Miami at San Antonio

The Miami Heat have proven to be an on-and-off team this postseason. When they play with their back-against-the-wall "A" game, they have been unbeatable. In their last twelve games following a loss, they are 12-0 straight-up and 12-0 ATS. As consistent as they have been in that situation, the same can be said for their consistency off a win where they are 0-5 straight-up and ATS in their last five. San Antonio is in the "A" game spot for Game Five. If they want to win this series, they can't go back to Miami down 3-2, needing to win both games. To do that would mean they would have to win three games in Miami in this series, and that is a real longshot. The last two years Miami is 19-5 in the playoffs at home, covering eight series. No team has won there as much as twice, let alone three times. So, the Spurs know this game is a must-win and I expect them to play as such. Over the past three seasons, the Spurs are 16-4 ATS revenging a home loss. Over that same span, they are 11-1 straight-up following a loss by 15+ points. The Spurs have been in the playoffs for 16 straight years, and are 72-27 straight-up at home. They have lost consecutive home games just one time over the last 11 seasons, so you know they will respond here. Take the Spurs. Also take the first-half UNDER. The staple of this San Antonio team has always been defense under Pop, and you can be sure that they will be playing it tonight, especially early. Miami has done a great job defending as well, except for the three-pointer, which will have a lot of variance. The Spurs are over 50% in the last three games from deep but that can't be expected moving forward. The Spurs are 14-2 UNDER in the first-half this season after back-to-back games going OVER the total. And in the Popovich era, the Spurs are 146-100 to the UNDER in the first-half after a game in which they made 50%+ of their three pointers. Play on San Antonio and take the first half UNDER.