Miami at San Antonio

Things simply don't look the same for this Miami team as they did a year ago when they went on to win it all. Their big three in James, Wade, and Bosh have simply not played at the same level. Wade is obviously having knee problems or just getting older. He averaged 22.1 points per game in the playoffs a year ago, but has not scored 22 points in any game over his last 26. Bosh went for more than 20 points on 26 occasions this season, but has not done so in 22 straight games. James has struggled in this series, averaging just 16.7 ppg, and shooting just 36.2%. He looks like the LeBron James from the Dallas Finals a few years ago - a no show. The Spurs will have limited services from Parker tonight, and that takes away some offense. Both of these teams can get after it on defense, as no game has topped the 190-point mark in combined points in this series. The last game eeked over the total thanks to some strange happenings including a prayer three-point buzzer beater at the end of the half and about one hundred three-pointers from Danny Green and Gary Neal. You can count on that not repeating. The NBA Finals have seen games with a posted total of less than 190 go 47-20-1 to the UNDER since 1990. These teams have now played to a 22-6 UNDER mark in their last 28 meetings. Parker being limited, at best, should mean a slower pace, and emphasis on defense for the Spurs. And with Miami struggling on offense, and desperate for a win here, expect the defense to be at its best. Who will win this? Could go either way. Take the UNDER.