Miami at San Antonio

The San Antonio Spurs got blown out in Game Two, but they did what they needed to do by splitting a pair of games in Miami. Looking back at the first two games, many will think San Antonio was lucky to salvage a win, as they won just one of the eight quarters of play. The last team in the NBA Finals to win just one quarter in the first two games on the road was the Detroit Pistons in the 2004-05 season against these same San Antonio Spurs. That Pistons' team went on to win Game Three at home 96-79, so I am not concerned about this stat. The Spurs actually are in a very positive universe as good playoffs teams with a winning percentage of .600 to .750 are 56-25 ATS when installed as a home favorite, playing vs. winning team off a road loss of 10 or more. There is also a long standing playoffs situation that has shown the NBA Finals, since the 1990-91 season, have gone 47-19-1 to the UNDER when the total is set below 190. We have already seen two UNDERs in this series. The Spurs have done a great job covering LeBron, and making others beat them. They have one big edge, that should be even bigger at home. Despite losing by 19 points in Game Two, they out-rebounded the Heat by 8, including by 6 on the offensive glass. Credit the Miami defense in Game Two, as they are good, but Ginobli, and Parker having more turnovers than field goals is not a likely a repeat scenario. The Heat have been tough off a loss, which they were in Game Two, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last six off a win. These teams are now 22-5 to the UNDER in their last 27 meetings. Play on San Antonio and take the UNDER.