Miami at San Antonio

A lot of folks are raving about how Miami won't lose two in a row, the Spurs won't shoot 59% again, and LeBron James won't break down with cramps again. But they are overlooking a lot of other things that heavily favor the home team again. San Antonio had a +10 rebound edge in Game One, which is no surprise as Miami is not a good rebounding team (30th in the NBA) while the Spurs have Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan up front to take advantage. Duncan thrived with 21 points on nine-of-10 shooting to go with 10 rebounds. San Antonio will win the rebound battle again and have more high percentage shots than Miami. In addition, the Spurs have home court and a great bench with Boris Diaw getting 10 rebounds and Danny Green keying San Antonio's red-hot fourth quarter run. The Spurs are 52-24-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference and 16-7 in the NBA Finals. Duncan shot 49 percent against smaller Miami in the 2013 Finals, while averaging 18.9 points, 12.1 rebounds, and is off to a great start again. Miami may have won two straight titles and is 11-0 after losing a playoff game with LeBron, but San Antonio should have won the title in six games last year, without home court. They have home court this time and have a chip on their shoulder after what happened in 2013. The Heat is 0-5 ATS against the Western Conference. And when these teams meet, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Plus Miami is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in San Antonio. Play the Spurs in Game Two.