Miami at Philadelphia

Joel Embiid will be a game-time decision after he missed Game 2, but either way Philadelphia will expect to do much better shooting-wise after it missed 22 of 30 3-point tries on Wednesday. The 76ers are going home in a desperate situation while Miami will be in letdown mode after winning the first two games of the series. The Sixers have covered the spread in five of their last seven after losing by at least 10 points. Philadelphia had gone UNDER in six straight games before Tuesday when the Heat shot 51.3% and hit 14 of 29 from 3-point distance. The 76ers figure to clamp down defensively right from the start in this must-win spot that will be similar to Game 1 when the teams scored 101 first-half points. Five of the last seven meetings have stayed UNDER, and the Heat are 14-3 UNDER in their last 17 playoff games as favorites. The Sixers still are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with .600 or higher winning percentages, and they still have Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and, of course, James Harden to pick up the slack if Embiid can't go. I have three picks on this game for you. Play the 76ers on the moneyline, the First-Half UNDER, and full-game UNDER.