Miami at Philadelphia

The Miami Heat trail the Philadelphia 76ers 3-1 in their opening round playoff series, and have a lot of work to do in an attempt to get back in the series, and it may get a bit tougher on a pair of fronts. Joel Embiid is working his way back into game shape, and he has been a huge difference maker in the last two games. While the lone Miami win broke the Sixers long winning streak, they remain unbeaten in Embiid's last nine games when he has played, covering the last seven of those and carrying a winning margin of 12.7 points per game in the nine. Over their last five games, Philly has averaged over 119 points per game with an average margin of victory of over 15 points. Against winning teams this season at home, the Sixers are 17-7 ATS, and under Brett Brown, the Sixers are 33-19 ATS as a home favorite. The second thought is Josh Richardson suffered a bruised shoulder last game and will at best be less than 100%, at worst, out. Those aren't good scenarios for the Heat who have run out of gas in this series, having been beaten in the fourth quarter in all four games, by a total of 42 points. Play on Philadelphia.