Miami at New Orleans

Sure has been a tough season for Miami as they have now dropped nine straight. Many will look at this pick and wonder what we are thinking playing a team that can't find the win column and hasn't won a game since before Christmas. We look for value and at this point teams like Miami are at the peak of their value. Yes, the Heat have been losers all season, but the right spot for them is presented tonight. They play hard against the good teams and as a rule the NBA’s better teams take the night off against the "cupcakes" and play without passion. Miami has lost 11 of 12, but three of those they got to OT, and five others they lost by seven or less, so they haven't quit, they have been hanging around most games. They have faced .600+ teams on 10 occasions and played eight of them inside this pointspread. They have also been a dog of 9+ on six different occasions this season and stand at 6-0 ATS! They haven't quit. New Orleans has had a breakout season and is poised to be in the playoffs at seasons end. They aren't ready to be a double-digit favorite yet. They have shown the ability to play with the good teams when focused, but when out of focus, which is apparent against some of the weak teams, they can be beaten any night. They have already lost at home to Indiana by 12 points, and lost to five-win Minnesota by nine, as well as needing OT to slip past Memphis, and won by just three points at home to Seattle. Even without the W's, Miami has hung tough all season and this one stays inside the number.