Miami at Milwaukee

Miami is 18-25 straight up on the road this season and on a 4-10 spread run away from home. Up 3-1 in the series, there is less urgency for a big effort knowing they're at home if there's another game. They're a defensive-oriented team ranked last in the NBA in scoring, 26th in field goal shooting and from beyond the arc. Miami is on a 17-26 ATS run on the road, 15-27 ATS off a home game, plus 14-32 ATS after a victory. Top-seeded Milwaukee has gone 33-10 at home, eighth in the NBA in scoring, and 10th from 3-point land, while the defense is second in field goal shooting allowed (45.6%), and eighth at defending from long range. The Bucks are 41-25 ATS as chalk, including 11-2 ATS off a loss as a favorite. The Bucks lost Game 1, then bounced back in Game 2 at home with a 138-122 rout of Miami, so look for another huge all-around effort by the home team. Make it a Max Play on Milwaukee.