Miami at Miami

Miami had the statement game they needed in game 3 to tie the series. It was a more lopsided victory than the Dallas game 2 which is saying a lot. Dallas scored 7 points in the fouth quarter! Yes, that is a record. These last couple of games in Miami have been hard to call a side on from my perspective. That's why I stayed away from the side last game and focused on the total. We'll do so again tonight. I've gone with the UNDER three straight times and we've hit with two of them. Let's go for three out of four tonight. Why not? In the first four games, we've had just one game make it over this posted total and two games under 175 points. The average number of points scored has been 180. Yet we again see a high posted total here. As a result, again, tremendous value. Miami hasn't been involved in a game where either the Heat or their oppoenent scored triple figures since May 16th - the last game against New Jersey. That's 10 straight games. They simply go UNDER at home against good teams, as I've stated the last two picks. They are 20-5 UNDER vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game this season. How about how they respond after a home blowout win? 34-18 UNDER over the past decade in the next game. Dallas, for their part, is 23-12 UNDER on the road vs. good teams (60%+ SU) over the past two seasons. Without Stackhouse's 15 ppg, even better. Great value here at 187.5 and we'll go UNDER.