Miami at Los Angeles

It's hard to believe the Heat, just two years removed from an NBA Championship, have fallen this hard. They are an NBA worst 2-26 over their last 28 games. They started 12-9 ATS, but have since been a disasterous 7-26-1 ATS. It's hard to find many shinning lights in numbers like that, but the Heat have one. They have gone 6-2-1 ATS as a double-digit dog. The Lakers have been rolling as they seek their tenth straight win. They had eight straight covers until the books put the penalty line in place vs Portland, where asking them to cover 15.5 was too much. That 15.5 exceeded the highest pointspread they had been asked to cover all season by 3.5. There simply is no value to be found on the Lakers right now. The Heat, as bad as they have been, has managed to go 3-0 ATS vs the extreme numbers of 12+. This one looks ugly, but the value lies on the Heat for this one. We also like the OVER. Miami's last five games have averaged 204 ppg while LA's have gotten to 211.6. Miami is 22-11 OVER the past two seasons vs. winning teams including 17-5 OVER vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ ppg. LA is 11-2 OVER in post-All Star play the past two sesaons vs. losing teams. Miami and the OVER here.