Miami at Indiana

The Miami Heat played their best game of the series in Game Three to reclaim home-court advantage, taking a 2-1 series lead. Miami has seemed to be like a lot of top-flight teams, as they appear to play so much better when they either trail in a series, or are even in a series. They have certainly proven that to be true this season as they are now 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 ATS when even or trailing. That moves them to 12-4 straight-up and 11-5 ATS the last two years. The loss in Game Three was the first sustained at home in the playoffs this season for Indiana, breaking a six-game home playoffs winning streak. I expect them to do what got them here, and what has kept them here, and that is to be very aggressive on the defensive end. Game Three was simply an outlier, as they allowed 70 first half points, after allowing less than 40 in their last four playoffs home games on average. The Pacers have made a habit of coming back strong after being beaten by double-digits where they are 11-4 ATS in their next game over their last 15. The last decade has seen 156 home dogs in the playoffs and 58.6% of those have played UNDER, and after the defensive stinker by the Pacers in Game Three, look for them to be sticky early on the defensive end here. Play on Indiana and the first half UNDER.