Miami at Indiana

The Miami coaching staff finally has some competition! Say what you want about Frank Vogel's moves, but overall this guy should be Coach of the Year. He has molded an unselfish team that concentrates on defense and team-oriented play. Indiana was tops in the NBA this season in field goal shooting defense, allowing 42% shooting - plus they were tops at defending the perimeter allowing .327% shooting, truly remarkable numbers. They used their big front-court muscle to lead the NBA in rebounding and are second in points allowed. That's why Miami is having so much trouble. And, the Heat is fortunate to be 1-1. The Heat is 2-6 ATS in their last eight Conference Finals games. And remember that Indiana won the regular season series 2-1, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS in games played in Indiana. They won the first meeting here 87-77 with a +19 rebounding edge. Miami was out-rebounded 55-to-36 and outscored by 17 in second chance points. The Pacers also won the second meeting here 102-89 with a +9 rebounding edge. Miami's weakness the last few years has been rebounding (#30 this season), and that's a huge strength of Indiana. And the confidence of this Indiana team has been impressive, after losing that heart-breaking game one in OT, to come back the way they did and win game two shows how much they've improved from a year ago - a testament to the players and the coaching staff. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and the Heat are just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings, clearly a difficult match-up for Miami. Indiana is 28-19 ATS in this building this season including 19-10 ATS vs. winning teams this season. Take the Pacers here for my NBA Playoffs Game of the Year.  In addition, take the first-half UNDER. This will be a slow, defensive game, especially in the first-half. Paul George has been the primary defender on LeBron James and has done a very good job. Indiana plays its best defense at home and will be sky-high for this one. The Pacers out-rebounded the Heat 55-36 in the first meeting here in January, and Miami shot just 41% while Indiana shot 36 percent. That was a season low in points for the Heat going UNDER the total by 23 points. In that meeting Miami was limited to one fast break point to Indiana's five. In the rematch a month later, Miami had six fast break points, the Pacers 12, as both teams dictated tough defense and a slower pace. With even more at stake now the pace will be even slower, and you will see a monster defensive effort from both sides. The Pacers are 37-17 to the first-half UNDER following a win this season. Take Indiana and play the first-half UNDER.