Miami at Indiana

The Indiana Pacers face a close-out situation in the Eastern COnference Finals at home tonight. The Heat exploded in the third quarter of Game Five by outscoring the Pacers 30-13, to take a 3-2 series lead. Teams that are up 3-2 in an NBA conference final, that has seen a see-saw W-L-W-L-W in the first five games have won just 45.5% of all Game Six contests. The Pacers have been very good defensively all season, and that will be their focal point when they take the floor tonight. The Heat have enough experience that they know they have to also come out and make their defensive presence felt early, and ensure that the Pacers don't get their mojo going aided by a frenetic crowd. No. 1 seeds have not fared well in the playoffs over the years, as they are typically over-valued. And with Indiana owning a 5-4 edge against the Heat in the last nine played in Indiana, and the "A" game usually delivers when a home team faces a close-out game. All of which should play into the hands of the Pacers. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS at home, and 5-0 ATS in their last five following a loss, while the Heat is 0-4 ATS in their last four when following a win. I look for an intense effort from both sides to open this contest on the defensive end, with Indiana prevailing at the final buzzer. Take Indiana and play the first half UNDER.