Miami at Detroit

While I think the Pistons have an insurmountable task ahead of them, I think they aren't ready to lay down just yet. Yes, they are tired and outmatched. Their great run is very likely over but I don't think it happens tonight. They are too prideful a bunch to lose here in front of their home crowd. They aren't going out like this off three straight terrible performances. This is a team that is 7-1 in their last eight games facing elimination. The Pistons have played SO badly the last couple of games that I like them to bounce back here. They shot 39% last game while allowing 55% for Miami. Dwayne Wade is killing them and I think they muster enough energy to clamp down on him in this game. Miami can't help but feel a little relaxed here after dominating so much the last two games. They are up 3-1 and have some cushion. Sure they want to close out Detroit but the emotional edge has to go to Detroit who absolutely must win, and has to defend their pride. Everyone on TV and radio is talking about how Detroit is done. They want nothing more than to prove everyone wrong with a decisive victory here. Detroit isn't a team to lay down. As Chauncey Billups said, "We've got a lot of fight in us. We've been down 3-1 before... We're going home, we're a great home team and we have to win one game. If we don't focus on that one game, the season will be over." I've been beating up the Pistons in my writeups in taking Miami the past two games. But, I think the time is right to reverse, at least for this one game. Detroit has done so badly of late (now 1-9 ATS in their l0 games) that we have an official Wunderdog "contrian play." When things look this bad for a team, coming off a couple of blowout losses, it's often time to back them. History confirms this. Home favorites revenging a loss vs opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 31-12 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. I'd be shocked if Detroit doesn't come with everything they've got tonight. Pistons minus the points.