Miami at Denver

LeBron may take this game off, and if he does play, I don't expect it to be a lot as Spoelstra has strong motivation to rest him and get him healthy. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost six straight games and are in need of a feel-good win. What's been lost in what Miami is doing this season is that their defense has been pretty bad of late. Over their last five games, Miami has allowed triple figures all but once, and has averaged 106.4 points per game allowed. Despite their struggles this season, the Nuggets are still 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage above .600. Miami is just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games playing with one day rest. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. Go with the Nuggs here.