Miami at Dallas

Dallas has crushed Miami in every conceivable way in the first two games. Last game Miami looked like a beaten down team that had given up. Shaq has been a complete non-factor as Dallas dominated inside outside, outhustled the Heat and manhandled Miami. In post game interviews, Avery Johnson came straight out and said that Miami was not focused and not aggressive. You know I predicted a Dallas series win and that's looking really good right now. But, this is the perfect time to jump on the Heat. You know my style is contrarian and this is the perfect contrarian play. Miami's pride has been wounded and they are not just going to lay down here. Dallas is high and confident - maybe overly so. History tells us that Miami bounces back here. We've banked many times this postseason backing the 0-2 team returning home. Miami must win this game. Even if they know in their hearts the series is over, pro athletes have pride and after two showings like that, including total destruction in game two, they will show up in game three at home to avoid going down 0-3 and getting embarrased again. The change of venue is the key here. As mentioned in game one, Miami is not a great road team, especially against the league's elite. But, they are a good home team. They are 72-53 ATS over the past three seasons as a home favorite and 45-26 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. They are 10-1 ATS at home vs. top level teams (70%+)in late season play over the past three seasons. After such dominating wins, it is VERY likely that Dallas lets down a bit here. History tells us they will. Over the past five seasons, road teams who are 60%-75% SU on the season who are getting 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home win by 10 points or more are just 30-59 (34%) against winning teams. Favorites with double revenge in games involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 53-26 (67%) over the last 5 seasons as well. This is a great setup for a Miami win and cover. I also like the game to be low scoring. The first two games have averaged 177 total points - more than 10 points lower than this total. Sometimes I look to go the "other" way and make contrarian calls but in this case, I see yet another UNDER. Again, Pat Riley is a seasoned NBA playoffs coach. He knows the way to claw back into this series is to play great defense. That will be his strategy. Dallas as we have seen, can play great defense as they have done this entire playoff series. Miami is 11-1 UNDER vs. top level teams (70%+ SU) since the All-Star break this year and 19-4 UNDER overall this season vs. great teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game. Miami and the UNDER tonight.