Miami at Dallas

Game one resulted in 170 points. One hundred and seventy! That's about as low as it gets without a San Antonio or Detroit team playing. That low score, along with the personalities of these teams, tells me something. Dallas we know is much more about defense than they used to be. Sure, they gave up points to Phoenix. But Phoenix is an anomoly. Outside of the Phoenix games during these playoffs, Dallas has allowed 93, 79, 89, 76, 87, 91, 103, 118, 98, 91, 111 and 80. Even against Phoenix they held the Suns to under 100 three times. Over the past seven games, Miami has scored 91, 88, 98, 89, 78, 95 and 80 and allowed 86, 92, 83, 78, 91, 78 and 90. Miami is not a great road playoff team and I think again tonight they will struggle to score points. If it weren't for their incredible first quarter of game one in which they shot 72% when the Mavs were asleep or in awe or whatever, they would have scored in the 70's or maybe even 60's last game. Miami will need to find an answer for Jason Terry tonight so I don't see him exploding again for 30+. Riley, an NBA vet, knows defense is the key to winning in the NBA playoffs, especially against great teams. Over the past decade, Riley's teams are 25-10 UNDER on the road vs. great teams that outscore opponents by 6+ points per game. If you boil it down to late-season play, that figure is 10-1 to the UNDER. He will find an answer for Terry and try to limit him and Nowitzki (he was successful on that front in game one). Miami is 10-1 UNDER in the second half of this season vs. great teams (70%+ SU). This total has droped already a 2.5 points from an opening line of 191. I think it hasn't dropped enough. Like the UNDER a lot here...