Miami at Dallas

Two games ago, Dirk missed a buzzer-beater and Miami won. Last game, he hit a late shot to seal a Dallas victory. This series has been close. Anything can happen tonight. I think Miami probably wins, but I don't feel strongly enough about it to make a play there. Instead, I'm looking at the total. I expect another low-scoring affair. The signature of this series has taken on a defensive tone. Depending on the opening vs. closing line in game three, we have seen either four or five UNDERs thus far. The total in this one has rightly moved down, but it's still not low enough. One or both teams have scored in the 80s in three of the four games with the average sitting at just 176.8 points per game. Miami is a great defensive team. They are 20-10 the UNDER now in their last 30 games this season vs. good shooting teams like Dallas (those making 46%+ of their field goals). The interesting thing is that Dallas is now playing very good defense too. I guess it shouldn't be a surprise. In all playoffs games Rick Carlisle has coached in a pivotal situation like this one in which the series is tied, he is 16-4 to the UNDER. Take the UNDER here.