Miami at Dallas

Two Finals rookies collide in Dallas in what should be a great series. Miami is playing very well with Shaq actually trying and he and Wade healthy. With Pat Riley at the helm, they have the experience here to give the road team a shot. But, Dallas is on a mission this year. They know this is their shot. They beat the defending champions and second best home team on their home court. That right there says a lot. Miami, too beat a great team on the road in Detroit. But, was Detroit really that great by the time Miami faced them? I don't think so. I talked alot in that series about the fact that Detroit just wasn't right. The Cleveland series took a lot out of them and they were tired and disjointed. Give Miami credit but give Dallas more. The Mavs can play with anyone with any style. No one on Miami is going to be able to guard Dirk. If he's on, Dallas wins - plain and simple. And, that's not the only troubling matchup for Miami. They will also struggle with Jason Terry's quickness and Josh Howard. Miami will score with Shaq and Wade but they don't have as many contributors. Back to Howard, he will get his in this game and the Mavs haven't lost a game when he scores 20+ points (25-0). Dallas has won 10 of the last 12 games in this series and they showed this year they can blow out Miami. Dallas is 35-21 ATS this season vs. winning teams, 23-9 ATS vs. teams that have outscored their opponents by 3+ ppg and 10-1 ATS vs. great rebounding teams like Miami. Against top-level teams this year, Miami has been terrible both SU and ATS. I look for Dallas to make a statement here and win and cover the spread.