Miami at Dallas

The Miami Heat withstood another late barrage by Dirk Nowitski in game three. Dirk had a chance, but this time he missed the shot that could have sent the game into overtime. That was a huge win as it allowed Miami to gain back home court advantage, and more importantly, momentum. What has been confirmed in this series is this: The Heat are the better team. And I think Dallas now knows that. The Heat hold a 2-1 lead in the series despite the fact that LeBron James has been mysteriously quiet. That's not a good sign for Dallas. If and when James shows up with a huge game, Miami can win by double digits. The Heat are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team over .600 and they have been a cover machine on a single day of rest at 8-1 ATS in their last nine. The road team has dominated this series at 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS Miami edge in the last seven when in Big D. The Heat are 29-19 ATS on the road this season and 20-11 ATS off a road win. Since last season, Dallas is 35-48 ATS as a home favorite. During that time the Mavs are just 8-22 at home vs. non-conference opponents. Take Miami in this one for the cover.