Miami at Dallas

Aint karma a bitch? In the 2006 Finals, the Dallas Mavericks had a commanding series lead and a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in game three. The series seemed over. Then they let Miami come back and steal that game, and the Mavs lost the Championship. In game two of this year's finals, the roles were reversed. Miami had won game one convincingly and were up by 15 points with seven minutes to go in game two, on their home floor. Dwayne Wade had just hit a three-pointer right in front of the Dallas bench. He and his teammates celebrated as if they had just won the game. Oooops! Whether that ignited Dallas, or just sent the Miami players into cruise-mode, we don't know. But we do know that Dallas went on to outscore the Heat 22-4 to take the game and make it a series. Miami remains clearly the better team here. They could have and should have finished that game and the series would be all but over. But now things have changed. This game is very close to call. I'm focusing on the total instead. We were on the first-half and full-game UNDER in game one and we won those easily. Game two was, as expected, higher scoring. What will  happen here? I think this game is also higher-scoring. Both teams are now loose and any jitters and rust gone. In road games this season in which they are revenging a loss, the Heat are 12-4 to the OVER. They are also 28-19 OVER after an ATS loss and 14-6 OVER following an upset loss. Since last season, the Mavs are 25-12 OVER to a total in the 180s. Under Rick Carlisle, this team is 15-4 OVER at home with a total between 185 and 190. Take the OVER here.