Miami at Charlotte

The Miami Heat left a lot of question marks about their ability to chase down a third consecutive NBA Championship. They limped into the playoffs at 12-15 over their last 27 games. The mindset has changed, however, as they have gotten their game faces on and have taken control of this series with a 3-0 lead. They look to wrap things up on the road tonight. The Heat have held Charlotte to 44% shooting and 90 points per game. The key has been their swarming of Kemba Walker. He has shot just 15-40 in the series, or 37.5%, and last game he was only able to get off seven shots. Miami knows how to win in the playoffs, through their defense. This may seem like a game that isn't important to them, but it is huge because a 4-0 sweep will allow them plenty of rest before heading to round two. That should mean an aggressive defense to start this game, take Charlotte out of the game mentally, and break their will. Charlotte is improved, but not ready for prime time and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six quarterfinal playoff games. These teams have played five of the last six UNDER the total in Charlotte, and the Bobcats are 45-32 UNDER since last season when facing a winning team. They are also 25-14 UNDER at home this season. The Heat will be bringing the "D" early to coast their way to some well needed rest. I like the first half UNDER here as well as as a full-game UNDER, with the Heat closing this series out in four games.