Miami at Brooklyn

The Miami Heat are 6-1 in their seven playoff games this season, and over the few years of the Big-3 in Miami, this team has come roaring back after a playoff loss. The Heat in this new era are 12-4 ATS following a playoff loss, and that includes 9-1 ATS in their last 10. There is no team that thrives on the defensive end more than the Heat, and I certainly look for them to turn to their calling card in Game Four. The Heat, following a loss in the playoffs, has come back on the defensive end of the court to strangle opponents, allowing an average of 87.8 points per game in the 16 contests. More notable than that, no team has ever scored more than 100 points against them in this situation. The Heat have themselves averaged less than 100 points in this spot, but that hasn't held back their margin of victory here as it is a rock solid 12 points per game. The Brooklyn Nets have a lot of workable parts, but in the end, when Miami imposes their defensive will, they are nasty and a very tough out. And all past indications are this is where the Heat....turns up the heat on the defensive end. This is the road that Miami has thrived on as they are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 in the conference semi's. The Nets own a 7-1 mark to the UNDER in their last eight after scoring 100+, and find themselves on the wrong end of things tonight. Make the play on Miami and the UNDER.