Miami at Boston

Miami has gotten smacked around by the Celtics for much of the last two games - fortunate to be ahead 2-1. Miami is also 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while the Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog. Boston has exploited the soft Miami frontcourt the last two games for their lack of height on the interior. Even during the regular season they were vulnerable down low (No. 21 in rebounding) and now without Chris Bosh the Celtics are taking advantage, driving to the hoop more. The Celtics are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite, 26-9 ATS in their last 35 Sunday games. And when these teams meet the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, and Miami is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Play the Celtics in Game 4. In addition, look for both teams to resort to their suffocating, all-out defense, which we haven't see as much the last two games. This is Game 4 with so much at stake at either a 2-2 series tie, or a 3-1 series lead. Miami ranks No. 5 in points allowed in the playoffs - Boston No. 3, and they are ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in field goal shooting defense in the postseason. While the Celtics got good offense from their bench in the last game, their bench has been awful for weeks now so don't expect many contributions off the pine. Miami's bench has also been below average. Look for a slower-tempo game, especially in the first half, as both teams lean on their defense and take away fast-break opportunities with so much at stake. Play the Celtics and the first half UNDER.