Miami at Boston

The Miami Heat came out strong and fast in the opening period scoring 29 points, but a ten point fourth quarter did them in. Don't be fooled by the low scoring of game one, as the Heat a year ago scored 64 in game one in Atlanta and followed with 108 in the next game. What has happened because of it is the total which was deemed fair in game one has been shaved by five points, getting almost teaser value straight up. The Celtics have gone 8-1 at home in round one of the playoffs the last two plus years, so getting them where they just basically have to win is the way to go here. Yes, Garnett is out, but his teammates will step up. This team knows how to play without him. The value here lies on the C's at home vs a good, but not great, team as a dog (considering homecourt advantage).  The total has shrunk by 4 points but a great defender is out of this game. Miami is 29-16 OVER this season coming off a road loss and dating back to last season, the Heat are a perfect 8-0 OVER when coming off a road loss in which they scored under 80 points. Boston is 17-5 OVER in April games since last season. These offenses will adjust and produce more points tonight. Go with the Celtics and the OVER here.