Miami at Atlanta

You have to be impressed with the athletic Hawks who have injuries up front, but continue to overachieve as they lean on their tough defense. This team is No. 5 in the NBA in points allowed, just 91.1 points per game. They have won two in a row, including an impressive 89-87 OT win at Orlando as an underdog as Josh Smith had 23 points and 19 rebounds. They allowed 42% shooting. They got outrebounded, but now face a Miami team that is not big up front. The Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Eastern Conference and face an overhyped/overvalued Miami team that is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Eastern Conference, a team that is 4-8 ATS its last 12 games overall. This is their third straight road game and the Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. Look for a monster effort by the home team with LeBron in town and Atlanta just two games behind first place Miami. Play Atlanta. Also, look for a fierce defensive game with so much at stake between these terrific defensive teams. Atlanta is No. 5 in the NBA in points allowed and both of these teams are in the Top 10 in field goal shooting defense. Miami puts on some defense against good teams, as the UNDER is 16-6 in the Heat's last 22 against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 21-8-1 in the Hawks’ last 30 games when playing on one day of rest, as well as 20-8 UNDER the total in their last 28 games as a home underdog. And when these teams lock horns the UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. Play the Heat/Hawks UNDER.