This pick was released to clients on May 13, 2024 at 11:29AM ET.
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Memphis at Golden State

May 13, 2022
img10:17 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Golden State wasn't too interested in Game 5 on Wednesday night as it was blown out from the start and humiliated by the Grizzlies, who led by 52 points at the end of the third quarter. The Warriors already had a 3-1 lead in the series and had this home game in Game 6 in their pockets, so they weren't too motivated after a hard-fought victory on Monday night. All that will change on Friday in front of a raucous home crowd, and as usually happens in the NBA, the Warriors will come out firing to redeem themselves after Wednesday night's debacle. Ja Morant is out indefinitely for Memphis, and nobody on the Warriors played more than 25 minutes in Game 5, so they'll be rested and ready to go in this one. Golden State has covered six of its last eight home games, and the Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as road dogs. Look for Golden State to bounce back in a big way. I also expect a low-scoring affair throughout. The Grizzlies have held the Warriors to just 51.6 first-half points in this series. This season, they are 51-42 to the first-half UNDER. The Warriors play exceptionally well in the first-half at home having allowed opponents just 52.4 per game in this building this season. The Grizzlies are 32-19 to the first-half UNDER the past two seasons when coming off of a home win and 30-16 UNDER off any home game this year. They are also 31-17 UNDER in the first-half vs. winning teams this season. Golden State is 28-19 UNDER in the first-half vs. winning foes. They are also 27-18 to the full-game UNDER at home this season. In the Steve Kerr era, Golden State is 89-6 UNDER as a big home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 43-26 UNDER following a road loss. I have three picks for you on this game. Go with the Warriors for a Max Play, the First-Half UNDER, and also the full-game UNDER.

2 units on Golden State -8 (-109) (risk 2 to return 3.83)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on 1st ½ Total UNDER 106.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 219 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Memphis Grizzlies
26
25
26
19
96
Golden State Warriors img
30
23
25
32
110
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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