This pick was released to clients on April 22, 2024 at 12:49PM ET.
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Memphis at Los Angeles

April 22, 2023
img10:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

The L.A. Lakers are healthy and split a pair of road games as the series heads West tied 1-1. Memphis was No. 1 in the NBA during the regular season defensively in field goal shooting allowed and 11th in points given up. The Grizzlies are 25-14 UNDER the First Half Total on the road, including 24-12 UNDER the First Half Total on the road off a home win. This sets up a historically good First Half UNDER situation that has been proven many times over in the playoffs. When you have an opening round series tied at 1-1 and the venue is now changing, the result is an intense defensive first half with so much at stake. Just 39.7% of these games make it over the total. The first half is even lower scoring with both teams combining to score under 100 points on average. The Lakers were No. 10 defensively in field goal shooting allowed and second at defending beyond the arc (34.4%). It's also a difficult situational spot for the visitors. Memphis is 16-25 straight up away from home and this is a long road trip. The Grizzlies are 3-12 ATS on the road versus winning teams, plus 7-20 ATS away against teams with a winning home mark. The Lakers are 24-9 ATS when a playoff series is tied. And NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing just their second game in five days are 94-58 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss to an opponent. I like the Lakers to cover the game in a defensive first half. Play Los Angeles as a Max Play and the First Half UNDER the total.

2 units on Los Angeles -4.5 (-109) (risk 2 to return 3.83)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on 1st ½ Total UNDER 108 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Memphis Grizzlies
9
28
31
33
101
Los Angeles Lakers img
35
18
35
23
111
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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