This pick was released to clients on September 13, 2012 at 5:52PM ET.
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Los Angeles at Portland

November 8, 2006
img10:05 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

At first glance one would be tempted to jump on the Lakers here. They are off to a good start and Portland is without Brandon Roy, their 1st round draft pick, who has made a nice contribution so far. Portland has been one of the worst NBA home teams of late winning just 34 of their last 83. The game looks like an easy mismatch on paper, but this one won't be played on paper - but rather on the hardwood in Portland. There are things in sports that defy logic, defy what numbers appear to suggest, yet occur without anyone ever being able to understand why. Why do certain pitchers in MLB that can't win to save their lives, dominate over and over again vs very good teams? We believe we have one of those unanswerable questions here tonight. The Lakers have a chamber of horrors that most don't know about, and it is in Portland. LA has for the most part been a better team than Portland for the last dozen years or so. Portland has struggled at home, but not vs the Lakers, and not any time in recent memory. The Trailblazers have won 16 of the last 20 at home vs the Lakers! The 16 wins? There have been 8 of them outright as an underdog. The 4 laker wins? Three of them have been by 3 or less points. That means the last 20 times they stepped on this court the Lakers could not cover a 4.5 pointspread but one time! If you go back even further, they have not covered it but once in their last 27 trips to Portland. Yes, this truly has been a nightmare place for the Lakers, as they were favored in the majority of those games. The Blazers have had one bright spot outside of the Lakers coming to town. They have been 12-3 ATS last 15 vs a team with a winning record. There is no explanation for these oddities in sports, why one team just dominates a team that is far superior. Let's not try to explain why, but take advantage of something few are aware of. Get on Portland here.

2 units on Portland +4.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN
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