Los Angeles at Phoenix

The Phoenix Suns came so close to coming home with a 3-2 series lead, but a put back by the Lakers as time ran out gave the Lakers a two point win and series lead 3-2. While the talking heads are looking at that game and saying how disheartening it is for Phoenix, I view it differently. I think it confirmed in the minds of the players that they can play with the Lakers and beat them anywhere. Phoenix handled LA in both earlier games here in Phoenix, and there is no reason to think anything different will happen here. This is a must-win for the Suns and they have the skills and confidence to do it. These teams are now in spots where they have delivered the opposite results. The Suns will be in their most predictable, and most comfortable spot, playing at home as a favorite. The Suns have racked up some huge winnings in this role, posting up the opponent to the tune of a 41-19 ATS mark. Put them in their most competitive spot in this role and they zoom to 11-2 ATS when the favored margin is 4.5 or less. The Lakers are coughing up a lot of losers with just a day of rest at 4-13 ATS in their last 17, as well as troubled waters facing a team over .600 on the road with a 3-8 ATS mark in their last 11. While going 42-7 at home, the Lakers are quite vulnerable on the road going just 26-22 this season away from Staples. The first two games of this series are sticking in bettors' minds, but they shouldn't be. The Suns have found their legs since then, outscoring the Lakers 334-318. In this location right now, the Suns are the team that should win.