Los Angeles at Phoenix

The Phoenix Suns were hammered in the first two games of this series by the Lakers and many feel they are dead and buried. After watching Boston crush the Magic to go up 3-0 in their series, the betting public is all over the Lakers here to do the same. But history tells a different story. Dating back to 1991, Conference Finals teams that open 2-0 at home, and then take to the road as a dog have gotten hammered in game three. The results overwhelmingly favor the desperate 0-2 home team as they have risen from the ashes to produce a 31-14 ATS mark at home in game three. Phoenix is 27-15 ATS this season as a home favorite including 12-4 ATS as a favorite of up to 6 points. Los Angeles is just 7-11 straight-up on the road the past two seasons after a double-digit home win. I like Phoenix to win here. I also like the first-half UNDER. This total is set at a sky-high 109.5 points thanks to 117 and 121 being scored in the first half of the first two games. But, those games were in LA and this one is in Phoenix. I expect the Suns to play much better defense at home (how can they not after allowing the Lakers to torch them for 64 per game the last two). When coming off a home win this season, the Lakers are 25-15 UNDER in the first-half. They are 23-11 UNDER in the first-half after three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Suns are 15-5 UNDER this season after a game in which 225 total points were scored. The first two games in this series were all Lakers and unfettered scoring. I look for the change of venue to change the outcomes.