Los Angeles at Phoenix

241 points were scored last game - 214 in regulation. Tonight the series returns to Phoenix with a total of just 206.5. If the Detroit, San Antonio and Miami series taught their competition anything, it's don't let the higher rated team get you in a close out game. After facing tough competition throughout their series, Miami won their last game by 17, Detroit by 29 and San Antonio 22! Think about that if you are backing the Lakers tonight. Oh, by the way, when you throw in the Cleveland/Washington game last night, 3 of the 4 close-out games went OVER the total and the fourth game missed by a half-point. I see this one sailing over the 206.5 number. While the early games in this sereies went UNDER the inflated totals (216, 215, 210.5), the latter games have gone OVER including the last two. The series has changed as the teams have thrown caution, and defense, to the wind. We were on the OVER last game because we felt that in a must-win game, Phoenix would resort to what got them here - their run and gun offense. They did. They'll come back with that again tonight. The Lakers shot 55.3% from the field last game while the Suns shot 56.8%! Games with a total of 200 to 209.5 featuring an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) versus a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher have gone OVER 82% of the time (27-6) since 1996. Take the OVER here.