Los Angeles at Milwaukee

The Bucks can struggle under the glass and it doesn't help to lose big man Andruw Bogut, their top rebounder and third leading scorer, but they did this week, losing him for 6-8 weeks. It doesn't help to face this tall Lakers team for new coach Mike Brown, one that is allowing 90.5 points per game (No. 5 in the NBA). The Lakers are off a big win over the rival Clippers and after a stretch playing the Mavericks, Heat, Magic, Pacers and Clippers (twice), now they take a step down and play the ailing Bucks. The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of -0.5 to -4.5. The Bucks are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 against the Western Conference, plus 0-7 ATS in their last seven games playing on no rest. They come off a 107-100 loss last night to the Bulls, chasing Derek Rose all over the court, so good luck against Kobe! Play on the LA Lakers. In addition, I see a high-scoring tilt. The Lakers’ offense has been clicking, on a 2-0 run OVER the total, scoring 96 points in each game. Milwaukee is vulnerable on the boards without Bogut and has allowed 97, 99 and 107 points the last three games, all OVER the total. The OVER is 4-0 in the Bucks’ last four home games, while the OVER is 4-1 in the Lakers’ last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Play the OVER and take the Lakers.