Los Angeles at Miami

The LA Lakers have won three of the last five games. They were a dog in each win of +3, +10 and +8. They had to play last night and nearly won again, falling 104-103 at Charlotte as a +9 dog. Jeremy Lin scored a game-high 23 points. They face a Miami team that has been dealing with injuries and personnel changes all season long. Of Miami's starting five on opening night, only Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng remain in the mix. Norris Cole and Shawne Williams were traded and Chris Bosh's season is over because of blood clots on a lung. Miami is 6-15-3 ATS at home and they don't get up to play weak teams, just 9-23-3 ATS at home against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Miami really struggles vs. teams like LA that make a lot of threes. The Heat are just 8-15 straight-up this season at home vs. teams that make 6+ three-pointers per game. When these teams met in January it was a three-point game and the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The wagering value is for the big dog to pull another road surprise, so play the LA Lakers on the moneyline.