Los Angeles at Denver

This is a must win for the Nuggets who were manhandled in Los Angeles. Not all must-win games result in a win but we like Denver's chances here. This is a team that is night vs. day at home vs. on the road. We faded them in both games in Los Angeles because we knew they can't play good teams on the road. They are absolutely horrible in that situation. At home, it's another story. And, that combined with their obvious motivation here will get them a much needed win. Denver was just 17-26 on the road this season but at home they were 33-8! They averaged 113 per game here (vs. 107 on the road) and allowed 102.5 (vs. 112 on the road). The Lakers are 9-20 ATS the past couple of seasons after allowing 105+ points in two straight games. Denver is 24-12 ATS over that same span at home revenging a loss in which they gave up 100+ points. George Karl is 95-73 ATS in the favorite role with Denver and 32-20 ATS at home revenging a loss. Under Karl, the Nuggets are 13-3 ATS at home revenging two straight losses in which the team gave up triple figures. The Lakers are fat and happy and Denver is in dire need. And, at home, the Nuggets can play with the best of them. Denver for the win here.