Los Angeles at Dallas

Isn't it obvious which is the better team right now? It seems the public still can't bring themselves to admit that Dallas is the better team. Nearly 65% of the bets are on the Lakers in this game to stave off elimination. I think they are done. The Mavs own the better record, but that's not all of it. If you remove the games in which either Dirk Nowitski or Tyson Chandler were out, Dallas owns a 59-15 record (50-21-3 ATS)! So with those two in the lineup, based on record, there is no better team in the NBA. The Lakers know they are done and they are in-fighting. They look like a team that is ready to go on vacation. They are 4-5 in the playoffs while Dallas is 7-2. If Dallas can bear LA in back to back games at Staples, why is this game nearly a pick 'em? As I wrote in my blog a few days ago, it's due to the perceptions of these two teams - which are wrong. Take Dallas here. I also like the UNDER. Los Angeles is averaging nearly 7 points per game in the playoffs as compared to the regular season, and they are allowing nearly 4 ppg less. That's an 11 point difference. Dallas is also scoring less and allowing less since the playoffs started. They are scoring 5.5 per game less and allowing 7 ppg less - over 12 ppg difference! The Lakers are a big UNDER team on the road having gone 27-18 UNDER away from Staples this season. This season when facing a good 3-point shooting team like Dallas (teams making 36%+ from beyond the arc), Los Angeles is 25-16 UNDER. Since last season, LA is 29-13 UNDER in expected close games (+3 to -3) and they are 20-7 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or less. I like Dallas and the UNDER here.