Los Angeles at Boston

In our game one writeup we talked about how we feel the Celtics are undervalued in this series. It gets even better tonight as what was a -2.5 point line in the opener, has moved to +1 in game two. Are we really getting the team with the best overall record, best home record, and best defense as a home underdog? Yes. Are we really getting a team that overcame adversity in game one to win by 10 points as an underdog here? Yes. Are we really getting a team that has won and covered vs. their opponent in every prior matchup this year as an underdog here? Yes! The public's love for Kobe and the Lakers continues to drive what we view as irrational behavior. Yes, Kobe will be pissed and will try to take over game two. But, will it be enough? The vaunted Lakers offense was able to manage just 88 points in the first game, despite Kobe trying to take over in the fourth quarter. It didn't work. We have discussed the fact that Boston has the better overall team. We have furthered our research to find that in addition to that, this matchup vastly favors them. Los Angeles is a premier offense team. Boston is the best defensive team. How have these teams done this year vs. similar competition? Well, vs. teams ranked in the top third of the league in offense (points for), the Celtics were 15-7 (68%). Versus the top-third in FG%, theye wer 13-8 (62%). Pretty amazing, really. How did the Lakers fare vs. the best defensive teams? Versus teams in the top third in points allowed, LA was 15-14 (52%). And, versus the top third in FG% allowed, they were just 13-14 (48%)! Again, we ask you who is the better team here? In game one, Boston held Kobe to 9-for-26 shooting and out-rebounded the Lakers 46-33. Who is the better team? The Celtics are 11-1 at home in the playoffs and they have only lost one game in their last 18 at home. But they are the underdog? Consider that NBA home teams with a good defense (under 92 ppg allowed) coming off an UNDER are 91-19 straight-up the past five years when facing a team with a bad defense (98+ ppg allowed). We'll go against the popular sentiment (but with the stats) and take the Celtics here. We also like the UNDER. The Lakers offense has showed signs in these playoffs that it's really not that stellar. Sure, they score at will vs. bad or average defenses. But, when faced with the pressure of a top defensive team, they look average. The Lakers were held to 93 and 84 vs. the Spurs and 88 last game by the Celts. Boston has now held 13 of 21 opponents to under 90 points in the playoffs including nine of twelve at home. Boston and the UNDER.